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Perils and Parallels
by Robert Marcom
The Altair 8800 used "top-hat transistors", integrated circuits, and was in
pieces. Some assembly was required. It had 256 bits of memory. Not 256
kilobytes. Just bits. It operated at the blinding speed of 1.2
kilo-Hertz. I thought it was a technological miracle. I won't tell you
how much I paid for it because I would like to cling to some shred of
respect among my computing friends. Let's just say it was the most
expensive computer I've ever purchased.
Just a little more about the 8800 then I will get to the point. When I
finally managed to get it put together, I learned enough Binary Code to be
able to "boot" the machine. This was accomplished by sitting in front of
it, flipping toggle switches on the front panel in exactly the correct
sequence. If I made a mistake, I started over. Then, when I got the
friendly little green blinking "ready" message on my monitor (yes, I even
bought the monitor, though it wasn't required) I proceeded to load my
operating system, which thing was accomplished by feeding paper tape with
holes through a paper tape reader. Then, if all went well, I could load a
program via cassette tape. If the operating system failed, I got to start
all over again.
Now, my point. I just spent a few hundred dollars (I'm sure you're sick of
my whining about it already) on my current computer. I found out that the
Intel 233 megahertz is discontinued, so if I wanted to upgrade, I must do
it now, while the chips are still available. I have the fastest computer
I've ever owned. It is not even close to being the fastest desktop
available, which clocks in at 400 MHz. I'm told by reliable sources that
the next generation will operate in the gigahertz range. You will notice
that I use old fashioned annotation when concerning Mr. Hertz name. I do
this in order to indicate how much like a dinosaur I feel, when I think
about where the state of computer science was when I started messing with
these things, and where it is now. I try not to think about where it is
going to be in my lifetime.
Computers were magic for me in the early days. They were fun, and they
were social. I could depend on a packed room, with friends oohing and
ahhing at the marvel of electronics. I never lacked for competition when
playing Space Invaders, which appeared on the screen as x, o, and /. No
graphics, just text and lines forming a grid. All imagery was supplied by
imagination. Something like the days of radio shows.
It is no longer possible to avoid computers. They are truly ubiquitous;
cars have dozens of them, as do kitchen ranges, children's toys, fishing
reels--etc.
Computers are not for fun anymore. They are deadly serious. Life and
death and supper ready on time now depend on them. Here is a frightening
thought: at any given moment, a massive flare can erupt from the sun and
eight minutes later every computer on the planet, not specifically shielded
against such an occurrence can be put out of commission.
Aircraft and aircraft controllers would be disabled. Auto engines would
simply stop running, leaving millions of people without motive power while
hurtling along at 50-60-70+ miles per hour. It reminds me a great deal of
the demise of the Babylonian Empire.
The Babylonians relied on their pet technology: intensive agriculture,
using irrigation. They built up a huge population which required the use
of irrigation in order to supply the amount of food they consumed. The
thought they were being prudent enough in establishing huge storage
granaries which would get them through the bad years when crops
failed. They didn't predict the inexorable salting of the soil which
irrigation engenders. When the salts in the soil built up to the root
level of the crops, nothing would grow.
You may visit Babylon, if Saddam permits you. It sits in the middle of a
desert, framed by two of the world's great rivers. Nothing grows there,
even twenty-five hundred years later.
We sit on an even sharper razor's edge, with our reliance on
computers. Our society can be shaken by such a thing, as our computers
getting confused over what year it is: 1900 or 2000. Little programs
called viruses cause nightmares among corporate staff officers. Imagine
the problems which would be engendered by the piezoelectric pulse that
would be generated by a moderate-sized meteor strike. The pulse would
travel, via the "ground" side of circuitry, through every computer which is
grounded to earth. Everywhere on the earth.
I don't advocate the avoidance of the use of computers, but I do advocate
parallel systems. Non-digital means for accomplishing the important things
necessary to our society should be maintained as a backup, in case of the
failure of electronic systems. I get the virtual fantods, when I think of
passenger aircraft that "fly by wire" exclusively. The Boeing 777 is case
in point. A pilot with a general systems failure would be reduced to a
helpless spectator, as his plane and several hundred passenger fell out of
the sky. Without digital feedback to electric actuators, he would not be
able to move a single control surface.
Of course I could be wrong, but I would not like to join the Babylonians
for reason of not taking precautions against possibilities we can
foresee. Even the Babylonians did that much.
Robert Marcom is currently the administrator of "The Writers' Room," an on-line writer's community. comments about this article? give us feedback
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